Your say / Politics
‘Who’s going to win? It’s too close to call’
“Who’s going to win then?” a Bristol business owner asked me on a recent morning.
My response was that the West of England mayoral election on Thursday is too close to call. Only independent candidate Ian Scott has got absolutely no chance of the top job and even he is getting plenty of praise for his no-nonsense attitude.
The very fact that the business owner asked me the question though shows that this election has seeped some way into day-to-day conversation; if not quite catching the wider public imagination.
is needed now More than ever
One poll has shown Labour’s Helen Godwin in the lead. Another poll has the Greens’ Mary Page out in front. But the margin of error in polling means that any of the party candidates can win.
Godwin was part of the cabinet within Bristol’s former mayoral system, a system which Page first wanted to join as the Lib Dem mayoral candidate before switching to the Greens and being part of the successful campaign to scrap the mayor and now running again for metro mayor wearing a different rosette.
Page was not the Greens’ first choice to be their candidate. That was originally deputy council leader Heather Mack before Page took over, recently admitting to the Times that she is spending funds from her own pension to help finance her campaign.
In an opinion piece for Bristol24/7, Green councillor Sibusiso Tshabalala said that Page will be a mayor “who understands what it means to stretch every penny and who will stretch every tool of the regional government to serve the public”.
(By the way, if you see adverts for Mary Page on the Bristol24/7 website or in our daily newsletter, these are paid-for adverts and absolutely not an endorsement of her candidacy.)
Labour meanwhile have rolled out metro mayors Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram, co-authoring their own opinion piece in Bristol24/7 to say that Godwin is the candidate of choice.
“The West of England stands at a pivotal moment,” write Burnham and Rotheram.
“With the leadership that Helen Godwin will bring to the role – leadership that builds bridges, forges partnerships and champions regional interests – it can accelerate its progress and deliver the ambitious change that communities across the region need and deserve.”
Despite a Labour mayor currently in charge at WECA (albeit someone banned from the building), Godwin promises “a new chapter for the West of England”.
There are six candidates standing for election on Thursday – photo: Martin Booth
As UWE Bristol expert Dr Thom Oliver recently wrote in Bristol24/7, “turnout not tactics” will decide this election. And if there is one prediction I am confident to make: turnout will be low.
When Tory Tim Bowles was elected the first metro mayor in 2017, turnout was 29.7 per cent. When Labour’s Dan Norris was elected in 2021, turnout was slightly higher at 36.6 per cent.
The disillusionment with local politics in many areas of Bristol is sobering. In Hartcliffe & Withywood, turnout in the 2024 local elections was just 14.25 per cent.
It’s a damning indictment which shows the almost complete disconnect between the ordinary West of Englander and the political machinations in City Hall or whatever happens within WECA HQ in Redcliffe.
But if you want to moan about business support, skills, housing and transport across the region for the next four years, remember to vote on Thursday and don’t forget your photo ID.
Bristol24/7 will have two reporters and a photographer at the count at Oasis Academy, who will be running a live blog on our website throughout the night bringing you everything from expert analysis to the latest snack situation in Brislington.
The result will not be announced until the early hours of Friday morning. Who will be the new mayor? Nobody knows but hopefully you do care.
This is an opinion piece by Martin Booth, the Editor of Bristol24/7
Main photos: Martin Booth
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