Poll predicts Greens winning three MP seats in Bristol

The Green Party is predicted to win three MP seats in Bristol in the next general election, according to a new mega poll.

The Greens would keep their seat in Bristol Central and gain Bristol South and Bristol East from Labour.

YouGov’s seat-by-seat MRP poll projects that Labour would hold its three seats in Bristol North West, Bristol North East and Filton and Bradley Stoke.

But Labour would lose its two seats in North East Somerset and Hanham and North Somerset to Reform UK.

Across the country, YouGov predicted that Reform would win 311 seats, which is 15 short of an outright majority.

Labour would be left with 144 seats, the Liberal Democrats with 78, the Conservatives with 45, the SNP with 37, the Greens with seven, and Plaid Cymru with six.

Carla Denyer was succeeded as leader of the Green Party by Zack Polanski in September – photo: Green Party

A Green Party spokesperson said: “As the new leader of the Green Party Zack Polanski has made clear, the Greens are here to replace Labour.

“Here in Bristol, this poll shows us doing just that. People are crying out for positive change.

“We now have 80,000 members across the country, and our brilliant MPs, including Carla Denyer in Bristol Central, are showing what Greens in parliament can achieve.

“They are working tirelessly for their constituents, holding this government to account and demonstrating the bold, progressive politics Bristol and this country is crying out for.

“At the next election, Bristol has the opportunity to punish Labour for their failure to tackle the cost of living crisis, for their complicity in the genocide in Gaza, and for their refusal to tax billionaires while cutting benefits for the most vulnerable.

“By electing more Green MPs, Bristol will instead finally have voices in parliament that will truly represent Bristol.”

A new poll sees the Greens win three MP seats in Bristol in the next general election – image: YouGov

The poll reflects the torrid time Labour is facing in government as the party’s popularity plummets, as well as the huge rise in support for Reform across the country and the Greens more locally.

The Green Party currently has four MPs, an increase from just one before 2024. They also largely took control of Bristol City Council last year, with support from the Lib Dems.

YouGov sampled 13,000 voters across Britain to project the vote share in every constituency.

This shows Greens winning a landslide in Bristol Central with 62 per cent of the vote, far ahead of Labour in second with 18 per cent. In Bristol East, the Greens would take 35 per cent of the vote, with Labour in second with 27 per cent.

Bristol South would be a very close result, with the Greens narrowly ahead on 28 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.

In Bristol North East, Labour would take 28 per cent of the vote, followed by Reform in second place with 24 per cent.

In Bristol North West, Labour would take 31 per cent of the vote, with Greens in second place with 23 per cent.

In Filton and Bradley Stoke, Labour would take 28 per cent of the vote, with Reform in second place taking 24 per cent. And in North East Somerset and Hanham, Reform would win with 31 per cent of the vote, followed by Labour on 26 per cent.

Alex Seabrook is a local democracy reporter for Bristol

Main photo: Betty Woolerton

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