What a fully legalised online casino market in Hong Kong could look like by 2030

https://www.bristol247.com/climate/news-climate/community-climate-celebrations-take-over-the-city/Hong Kong stands at an inflection point. The gambling market in the territory is controlled tightly, being centred on the Hong Kong Jockey Club and limited betting categories. So far, any casino-style form of gaming is outlawed, with every casino activity remaining expressly outside the licensed framework. With Macau’s land-based gaming industry recovering well and global online gambling markets continually expanding, there might be a shape to look at when thinking of a fully legalised Hong Kong market by 2030.

The gambling industry in Hong Kong has been growing steadily over the last few years. According to Statista, Gambling revenue in the territory is projected to reach US$1.69 billion in 2025. Additionally, the revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.03% between 2025 and 2030, to reach a projected volume of US$1.97 billion. Currently, only a handful of gambling activities are permitted, with the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) retaining an exclusive monopoly. However, things might be starting to take a turn, with the region potentially legalising the online casino market.

Hong Kong’s potential shift toward regulated online gaming also reflects changing consumer behaviour, with digital entertainment becoming increasingly dominant. As interest grows, policymakers may look to regional models for guidance. To understand existing demand patterns, many consumers already read about the best casino sites in Hong Kong to compare available platforms.

But first of all, what does the current market look like?

The current situation of the online gambling market
Decade after decade, the legislative refinements have turned Hong Kong’s gambling scene into one of the most tightly regulated in all of Asia. Well, betting is and has remained to hold a special place in the local culture, but the governing framework is firmly defined.

Currently, only a few gambling activities are legal in the region. In fact, the HKJC has the monopoly on football betting, horse racing and the Mark Six lottery. If you want to understand this more deeply, you can read this in the Gambling Ordinance (Cap. 148) and Betting Duty Ordinance (Cap. 108), which clearly show what is regulated and what is not.

Now, if any form of gambling is not regulated under the above-mentioned ordinances, whether online or physical, it is illegal. Even social gambling in private settings becomes unlawful once you are operating outside the set conditions. Additionally, the use of underground bookmakers or offshore websites might land you a date with the authorities. And for that, the law is implemented on both the participants and the operators.

Unfortunately, the illegal gambling market is quite huge, with many gamblers going for the online platforms offered. Players want to feel like they are in Las Vegas or Macau, and what better way than to engage offshore accounts. In fact, the HKJC reported that the illegal gambling market generated an estimated revenue of HK$12 billion every year. In comparison, the HKJC generated a total of HK$40.1 billion for the total community contribution in the 2023/24 fiscal year. Looking at the numbers, you can see how big the illegal market is.

For now, the territory still maintains a conservative approach when it comes to online gambling.

The doorway by legalising hoops
Even though the market is still conservative, the current market is being expanded. In September 2025, the Legislative Council of Hong Kong passed the bill allowing basketball betting in the region. And just like football, basketball betting will be taxed at 50%. The government cited that illegal basketball wagering generated as much as HK$90 billion last year. In an event where the illicit activity was turned into a profitable venture for the government, then HK would generate revenues of up to HK$67 billion this year.

The move to legalise basketball betting comes at a time when Hong Kong faces a budget deficit of more than HK$100 billion. In 2024, the region’s economy grew by 2.5%, down from 3.2% in the previous year. Therefore, taking advantage of the billion-dollar revenue stream would not only help combat illegal betting activities but also help lift the budget deficit burden.

A plausible regulatory model for 2030
Even though the online casinos are not legal in the region yet, it doesn’t mean that they are a no-go zone. Just as basketball betting has been legalised, there is still hope for casino gaming. However, just as the current regulations are tight, the most likely outcome of the legalised market by 2025 will be conservative. Key design features would most likely include:

• Limited high-value licenses
• Financial-grade compliance and AML
• Strong player protection architecture
• High taxation and revenue allocation
• Phased rollout and evaluation

The region will have to start by staging a pilot that would be technically defensible and politically feasible. If everything works out well, then the focus of players would shift from unregulated offshore platforms to a licensed environment. This would allow for consumer protection and tax revenue capture. Even though legalising online casinos in Hong Kong by 2030 might look like it’s not realistic, to some, adopting it might be the piece of the puzzle that the region has been waiting for.