We can’t afford to fail Bristol as the oil runs out

A week ago at the Oil, Carbon and Opportunity event held in Bristol on the 18^th March, a presentation was given which underlined the challenges that a low carbon, post Peak Oil Bristol must face, challenges that have to be tackled now in order that the city will prove itself resilient in a new era without cheap energy.

What was surprising was that despite there being many people at the conference of considerable prestige and experience within the sustainability arena, including Ian Hutchcroft of the Energy Saving Trust, Tony Norton from Regen South West, Joshua Thumim from the Centre for Sustainable Energy and Alastair Sawday from the Bristol Green Capital Momentum Group, it was none of the above that gave the presentation referred to.

Instead it was David Bishop, Director of City Development at Bristol City Council.

David’s presentation (see link below) included an overview of Bristol’s “long and prosperous” history over the past 1,000 years.  David emphasised that one of the key attributes of Bristol’s almost continuous success has been its adaptability to the “huge forces” that have shaped the city’s development as it has made use of the resources and opportunities available to it.  In essence, what David was saying was that Bristol, unlike any other provincial city, has remained in the top rank of English cities over the course of a millennium because of its ability to recognise and take advantage of changes in economic and social circumstances, something that it has been aided in by its unique combination of natural resources as well as by the ingenuity of its population.

He also pointed out that up until the last hundred years or so Bristol was still a relatively compact city. But access to transport powered by fossil fuels drove the expansion of the city, a process which speeded up even further with the growth in usage of motorbuses and then private motor-cars.  The supply of cheap and, seemingly, unlimited energy encouraged the development of low density suburbs eating into the surrounding countryside until we reached the position where we are now with the physical city stretching beyond its administrative boundaries, and the economic and transport city stretching even further.

But, cheap unlimited energy that can be easily be expended on motorised travel will, within a surprisingly short time, cease to be readily available, and the city is “now entering a phase of major change in the fundamental dynamics” that underline the city’s prosperity.  This might be seen as a threat, but the question was could it also be an opportunity?

If the opportunity was seized, Bristol could become a “European green capital” with a “low carbon” economy “resilient to oil shock” and its citizens could have a future that was “creative, prosperous, healthy and attractive”.  If it was not…….?

“Limiting sprawl” and compacting the city now had to be the way forward, with David pointing out that some of the most desirable and best-loved parts of the city were high density, like Clifton which had 150 dwellings per hectare.  This compares to some of the low density and less widely loved modern suburbs at 20-25 dwellings per hectare.  .

On my desk as I write this is a replica of a map of Bristol at the end of the 18^th century.  Apart from speculative building on Clifton Hill and Hotwells, the city is only just beginning to expand beyond its medieval walls.  New urban extensions have just been created; in the west Great George St, Charlotte St, and Berkeley Square have recently been added, whilst in the north, houses have been built in the previous decade in the St Michael’s Hill area stretching up to, but not yet reaching Cotham Hill with its public gallows.  The smart new suburb of Kingsdown looks down on the eastern urban extension of St Paul’s with its brand new church.  From St Paul’s we cross the river via Traitor’s Bridge, to Wade Street on the eastern edge of the city where a new prison has recently been opened at Bridewell just before the open fields leading up to Lawrence Hill. Across the river Temple Meads is then still, as its name implies, a meadow, and the Bath Road doesn’t become urban until it joins Temple Street overlooked by St Mary Redcliffe on its hill with Somerset Square behind still looking over fields towards Bedminster.  The gardens behind the houses on the south side of Guinea Street also have a rural outlook before we reach the Trin Mill where the Malago meets the Avon (now Bathurst Basin) and the docks of Wapping.  This is the physical extent of the city that has been near the forefront of English commercial and economic history for 800 years.

It is what happened over the next 200 years that transformed the city.  By the year 1900, following the introduction of mechanised transport such as the first railways, trams and buses another map shows a different scene. Bristol and Clifton have merged, with only the proto-Green Belt of the Downs stopping sprawl in that direction.  Instead new suburbs of Sneyd Park and Stoke Bishop have sprung up beyond the preserved open space. House building has begun at Westbury Park and plans for another new urban extension from Redland up the valley of the Cran Brook to Cold Harbour Farm are about to come to fruition whilst Bishopston is in the process of merging with the village of Horfield.  Meanwhile the suburb of Ashley Down has its railway station on the South Wales Union Railway with the railway line marking the boundary between urban development and green fields.  Eastville is also on the outskirts of the city with the green space of Eastville Park still separating it from the village of Stapleton, whilst Greenbank, Whitehall and Redfield are also city edge, although Redfield is merging with St George.  South of the river, a new development is springing up between St Anne’s and Sandy Park Road, with a new railway station on the GWR line to London proposed for the suburb. From Temple Meads, now with a railway station and a market for cattle, the city has started to expand up the hill towards the village of Upper Knowle but has only reached Clyde Road. St John’s Lane acts as an urban edge boundary elsewhere, although the Bristol South End Athletic Co have established their sports ground in the green fields beyond it – meanwhile their local rivals Bedminster FC have their ground at Ashton Gate also on the city edge (the two will eventually merge to form Bristol City FC) whilst Luckwell Lane and the future Duckmoor Road travel largely through fields rather than houses.  However, even at this stage, the new residential areas of the city still remained relatively high density, the relatively new suburb of Southville for example average 65 dwellings per hectare, a density capable of supporting the public transport services that the expanding city was reliant upon for its travel needs.

After World War I, a decisive change began.  A new fuel resource, easier to use and transport, began to dominate; Oil.  What, at the time, was considered a “virtuous circle” began.  Oil driven motorised vehicles, unconstrained by trams or railway lines, allowed individuals to travel further, allowing the development of low density housing (20-25 dwellings per hectare) in facsimile of a semi-rustic idyll, which in turn fuelled the demand for more oil driven motorised vehicles, which turn allowed residential developments even further out.  The inter-war period saw a massive extension of the physical area of Bristol with the private developments accompanied by the council’s own residential developments at Sea Mills, Shirehampton, Southmead, Horfield, Fishponds, St George, St Anne’s, Knowle, Bedminster and Bedminster Down.  In a 20 year period some 36,000 low density houses were built in Bristol in a split of 60% private to 40% built by the council, with some 5,000 older properties being demolished.  From a pre-war total of just under 80,000 houses, by 31^st March 1939 there were 108,000 houses.  The key difference between this period of building and the previous century was that whereas 1800 to 1900 saw Bristol’s population increase more than five-fold from some 60,000 to nearly 330,000, the latter period only saw a population increase of 15% but an increase in housing of 40%.  The city was spreading out, the question was whether it was spreading itself too thinly.

The policy of low density housing was continued after the war, with estates like those at Hartcliffe, Withywood, Stockwood and Lawrence Weston.  With densities too low to support profitable public transport, the supply of cheap oil, massive public investment in road building often at the expense of rail, and a combination of rising living standards coupled with a relative decrease in the cost of car ownership made the growth of private car ownership inevitable, leading to Bristol in particular, becoming the most car dependent major city in Britain.

But, as was made clear at the Oil, Carbon and Opportunity event, this situation of a transport system in the city essentially reliant on the long-term supply of cheap oil for private transport will, of necessity, soon come to an end.  We will then need to rise to the challenge of how people are able to get to work, to school, to the shops in a way that they can afford and is sustainable for the city as a whole.

Although Bristol has usually responded well to the challenges it faces there are glaring examples of where it has failed to do so, where it has failed to notice the wind of change and has tried, in a doomed effort, to follow a course of business as usual.  The most obvious example is the failure to recognise that the growth in size of ships along with the rise of the railways meant that the City Docks were no longer capable of competing with the likes of Liverpool and Glasgow.  By the time, Bristol realised this and moved out to Avonmouth, it had already lost its position as one of the UKs premier ports.  Luckily, further changes in the way shipping operates plus a massive infrastructure investment at Royal Portbury has allowed Bristol to re-establish itself as a major commercial port but only after years of economic pain and readjustment.  If Bristol fails to react to the threat of Peak Oil, and the need to reduce our Carbon Emissions, by adapting its development and transport strategies accordingly it is unlikely that there will be a second chance this time around.

Do we want to be the first generation in a thousand years that fails to keep Bristol amongst the foremost English cities?A week ago at the Oil, Carbon and Opportunity event held in Bristol on the 18^th March, a presentation was given which underlined the challenges that a low carbon, post Peak Oil Bristol must face, challenges that have to be tackled now in order that the city will prove itself resilient in a new era without cheap energy.

What was surprising was that despite there being many people at the conference of considerable prestige and experience within the sustainability arena, including Ian Hutchcroft of the Energy Saving Trust, Tony Norton from Regen South West, Joshua Thumim from the Centre for Sustainable Energy and Alastair Sawday from the Bristol Green Capital Momentum Group, it was none of the above that gave the presentation referred to.

Instead it was David Bishop, Director of City Development at Bristol City Council.

David’s presentation (see link below) included an overview of Bristol’s “long and prosperous” history over the past 1,000 years.  David emphasised that one of the key attributes of Bristol’s almost continuous success has been its adaptability to the “huge forces” that have shaped the city’s development as it has made use of the resources and opportunities available to it.  In essence, what David was saying was that Bristol, unlike any other provincial city, has remained in the top rank of English cities over the course of a millennium because of its ability to recognise and take advantage of changes in economic and social circumstances, something that it has been aided in by its unique combination of natural resources as well as by the ingenuity of its population.

He also pointed out that up until the last hundred years or so Bristol was still a relatively compact city. But access to transport powered by fossil fuels drove the expansion of the city, a process which speeded up even further with the growth in usage of motorbuses and then private motor-cars.  The supply of cheap and, seemingly, unlimited energy encouraged the development of low density suburbs eating into the surrounding countryside until we reached the position where we are now with the physical city stretching beyond its administrative boundaries, and the economic and transport city stretching even further.

But, cheap unlimited energy that can be easily be expended on motorised travel will, within a surprisingly short time, cease to be readily available, and the city is “now entering a phase of major change in the fundamental dynamics” that underline the city’s prosperity.  This might be seen as a threat, but the question was could it also be an opportunity?

If the opportunity was seized, Bristol could become a “European green capital” with a “low carbon” economy “resilient to oil shock” and its citizens could have a future that was “creative, prosperous, healthy and attractive”.  If it was not…….?

“Limiting sprawl” and compacting the city now had to be the way forward, with David pointing out that some of the most desirable and best-loved parts of the city were high density, like Clifton which had 150 dwellings per hectare.  This compares to some of the low density and less widely loved modern suburbs at 20-25 dwellings per hectare.  .

On my desk as I write this is a replica of a map of Bristol at the end of the 18^th century.  Apart from speculative building on Clifton Hill and Hotwells, the city is only just beginning to expand beyond its medieval walls.  New urban extensions have just been created; in the west Great George St, Charlotte St, and Berkeley Square have recently been added, whilst in the north, houses have been built in the previous decade in the St Michael’s Hill area stretching up to, but not yet reaching Cotham Hill with its public gallows.  The smart new suburb of Kingsdown looks down on the eastern urban extension of St Paul’s with its brand new church.  From St Paul’s we cross the river via Traitor’s Bridge, to Wade Street on the eastern edge of the city where a new prison has recently been opened at Bridewell just before the open fields leading up to Lawrence Hill. Across the river Temple Meads is then still, as its name implies, a meadow, and the Bath Road doesn’t become urban until it joins Temple Street overlooked by St Mary Redcliffe on its hill with Somerset Square behind still looking over fields towards Bedminster.  The gardens behind the houses on the south side of Guinea Street also have a rural outlook before we reach the Trin Mill where the Malago meets the Avon (now Bathurst Basin) and the docks of Wapping.  This is the physical extent of the city that has been near the forefront of English commercial and economic history for 800 years.

It is what happened over the next 200 years that transformed the city.  By the year 1900, following the introduction of mechanised transport such as the first railways, trams and buses another map shows a different scene. Bristol and Clifton have merged, with only the proto-Green Belt of the Downs stopping sprawl in that direction.  Instead new suburbs of Sneyd Park and Stoke Bishop have sprung up beyond the preserved open space. House building has begun at Westbury Park and plans for another new urban extension from Redland up the valley of the Cran Brook to Cold Harbour Farm are about to come to fruition whilst Bishopston is in the process of merging with the village of Horfield.  Meanwhile the suburb of Ashley Down has its railway station on the South Wales Union Railway with the railway line marking the boundary between urban development and green fields.  Eastville is also on the outskirts of the city with the green space of Eastville Park still separating it from the village of Stapleton, whilst Greenbank, Whitehall and Redfield are also city edge, although Redfield is merging with St George.  South of the river, a new development is springing up between St Anne’s and Sandy Park Road, with a new railway station on the GWR line to London proposed for the suburb. From Temple Meads, now with a railway station and a market for cattle, the city has started to expand up the hill towards the village of Upper Knowle but has only reached Clyde Road. St John’s Lane acts as an urban edge boundary elsewhere, although the Bristol South End Athletic Co have established their sports ground in the green fields beyond it – meanwhile their local rivals Bedminster FC have their ground at Ashton Gate also on the city edge (the two will eventually merge to form Bristol City FC) whilst Luckwell Lane and the future Duckmoor Road travel largely through fields rather than houses.  However, even at this stage, the new residential areas of the city still remained relatively high density, the relatively new suburb of Southville for example average 65 dwellings per hectare, a density capable of supporting the public transport services that the expanding city was reliant upon for its travel needs.

After World War I, a decisive change began.  A new fuel resource, easier to use and transport, began to dominate; Oil.  What, at the time, was considered a “virtuous circle” began.  Oil driven motorised vehicles, unconstrained by trams or railway lines, allowed individuals to travel further, allowing the development of low density housing (20-25 dwellings per hectare) in facsimile of a semi-rustic idyll, which in turn fuelled the demand for more oil driven motorised vehicles, which turn allowed residential developments even further out.  The inter-war period saw a massive extension of the physical area of Bristol with the private developments accompanied by the council’s own residential developments at Sea Mills, Shirehampton, Southmead, Horfield, Fishponds, St George, St Anne’s, Knowle, Bedminster and Bedminster Down.  In a 20 year period some 36,000 low density houses were built in Bristol in a split of 60% private to 40% built by the council, with some 5,000 older properties being demolished.  From a pre-war total of just under 80,000 houses, by 31^st March 1939 there were 108,000 houses.  The key difference between this period of building and the previous century was that whereas 1800 to 1900 saw Bristol’s population increase more than five-fold from some 60,000 to nearly 330,000, the latter period only saw a population increase of 15% but an increase in housing of 40%.  The city was spreading out, the question was whether it was spreading itself too thinly.

The policy of low density housing was continued after the war, with estates like those at Hartcliffe, Withywood, Stockwood and Lawrence Weston.  With densities too low to support profitable public transport, the supply of cheap oil, massive public investment in road building often at the expense of rail, and a combination of rising living standards coupled with a relative decrease in the cost of car ownership made the growth of private car ownership inevitable, leading to Bristol in particular, becoming the most car dependent major city in Britain.

But, as was made clear at the Oil, Carbon and Opportunity event, this situation of a transport system in the city essentially reliant on the long-term supply of cheap oil for private transport will, of necessity, soon come to an end.  We will then need to rise to the challenge of how people are able to get to work, to school, to the shops in a way that they can afford and is sustainable for the city as a whole.

Although Bristol has usually responded well to the challenges it faces there are glaring examples of where it has failed to do so, where it has failed to notice the wind of change and has tried, in a doomed effort, to follow a course of business as usual.  The most obvious example is the failure to recognise that the growth in size of ships along with the rise of the railways meant that the City Docks were no longer capable of competing with the likes of Liverpool and Glasgow.  By the time, Bristol realised this and moved out to Avonmouth, it had already lost its position as one of the UKs premier ports.  Luckily, further changes in the way shipping operates plus a massive infrastructure investment at Royal Portbury has allowed Bristol to re-establish itself as a major commercial port but only after years of economic pain and readjustment.  If Bristol fails to react to the threat of Peak Oil, and the need to reduce our Carbon Emissions, by adapting its development and transport strategies accordingly it is unlikely that there will be a second chance this time around.

Do we want to be the first generation in a thousand years that fails to keep Bristol amongst the foremost English cities?