Posted by Unemployment in Bristol has continued its gentle fall of the last three months, as national figures show the rate has fallen for the first time since the start of the recession.
Unemployment in the UK is now 2.46million, down 7,000 on the previous figure – the first time in 18 months that the jobless total has fallen.
But economists have warned that the recovery is still far from certain, while the figures suggest that the fall in unemployment was fuelled partly by an increase in people taking part-time work.
The number of part-time employees grew by 99,000 over the quarter to reach a record high of 7.71 million in the figures released for December 2009.
In Bristol, 12,685 were registered as unemployed last month, down from 13,608 in September 2009. The rate is still far higher than a year ago as the downturn began to bite – with only 8,766 out of work in December 2008.
Unemployment rates by area:
- Bristol South – 4.3% (2,800 out of work)
- Bristol West – 2.4% (2,258)
- Bristol East – 4.7% (3,200)
- Bristol North West – 3.4% (2,468)
- Kingswood – 2.8% (1,950)
But the Institute of Directors (IoD) has warned the recovery is still fragile. Graeme Leach, Chief Economist at the IoD said: “The recession was abnormal and the recovery looks that way as well. The expected lag between the end of the recession and the peak in unemployment may not materialise.
“The fall in both the narrow and wider unemployment measures is good news, but we shouldn’t get too carried away. We still think this will be ‘one L of a recovery’ with weak quarter-on-quarter growth in 2010-11.”
Meanwhile, Bristol-based financial advisers Baker Tilly have said the outlook for businesses may get worse before they get better during the next 12 months.
They warned that while businesses fail during recessions, many also fail coming out, having spent their cash reserves during the hard times that they so need when they have to grow again in better times.
Andrew Sheridan, Restructuring and Recovery partner at Baker Tilly, praised the work of HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) for allowing struggling businesses to defer payment on PAYE, National Insurance or VAT, and granting firms ‘time to pay’ agreement plans.
“HMRC treats each case on its merits but, in my experience, keeping an open dialogue and establishing effective communication channels can often result in a constructive way forward,” he said.
“Businesses that are struggling should be as open as possible with HMRC and businesses with ‘time to pay’ agreements in place must ensure they adhere to them.”
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