Posted by Planet Earth’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could be greater than first thought, making computer predictions of climate change less dire than expected.
New research from the University of Bristol shows that the balance between airborne and absorbed CO2 has stayed relatively stable since 1850, despite emissions of the greenhouse gas having risen from about two billion tons a year in 1850 to 35 billion tons now.
Dr Wolfgang Knorr: Research raises significant questions
The results run contrary to recent work which expects that the capacity of the planet to absorb CO2 should start to diminish as CO2 emissions increase, letting greenhouse gas levels skyrocket.
The strength of the new study, to be published online in Geophysical Research Letters, is that it is based on measurements and statistical data, including historical records extracted from Antarctic ice, and does not rely on complex computer climate models.
The work – by the university’s Dr Wolfgang Knorr – could raise significant issues for climate change policy. Emission targets to be negotiated at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen next month have been based on projections that do not take into account the planet’s ability to soak up more CO2.
Dr Knorr said though that his research should not be used as an excuse to ignore the dangers of climate change.
Speaking to Original Radio earlier today, he said such an attitude was a “superficial interpretation of the results. Almost half of the CO2 we emit stays in the atmosphere and is enough to cause global warming. And the research is based on the past and we are now pushing the climate system, which could break in future.”
Adding that world leaders still needed to engage policies to reduce CO2 emissions, Dr Knorr said that science needed to be open and fair, and not hide inconvenient results. He said the results of his work needed to be discussed to see why the proportion of CO2 being absorbed had not changed.
“Like all studies of this kind, there are uncertainties in the data, so rather than relying on Nature to provide a free service, soaking up our waste carbon, we need to ascertain why the proportion being absorbed has not changed.”
Further reading
Everyone knows that preventing climate change, or at least the worst consequences of it, is not going to be easy. While the task required is large and difficult, there are some simple, quick, and easy fixes that can make a real difference, and perhaps even buy us more time. But they are being ignored.
http://www.selfdestructivebastards.com/2009/11/low-hanging-fruit.html
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