Signs of recovery for city are good say SWRDA economists

Bristol is well placed to recover from the recession, economists from the South West Regional Development Agency (SWRDA) have said, but the UK economy is not expected to emerge from the downturn until next year.

SWRDA SWRDA and the South West Observatory said that although the city has suffered in the short term because of its dependence on financial services and specialised engineering, in future these sectors are predicted to grow.

The research also shows that nearly 10 per cent of the city’s population is self-employed, suggesting a relatively high level of entrepreneurship.

In their latest report – the South West Regional Economic Profile – the group said that the strengths of the city’s economy would outweigh the current problems. But they admitted that unemployment in the South West has not peaked, and that the deprived areas of the city are not benefiting from any signs of recovery.

Eleanor Field, senior economist at the South West RDA, said: “It’s been a painful time for Bristol of late, and although the city is highly productive in certain areas there are still pockets of deprivation which indicate those benefits are not trickling down to all parts of the community.

“But the signs are good for Bristol’s recovery, and before the financial crisis the city had enjoyed a long period of growth. Our research shows that its strengths in the longer term should largely outweigh its short-term difficulties, and it also tells us where bodies like the RDA can most usefully play a role.”

Meanwhile, a report by the influential economics research group the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has stated that hopes for an end to the UK recession are premature.

Gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged from July to September, NIESR predicted, meaning that when GDP figures are announced on October 23, the UK economy is expected to have remained static or experienced a slight decline.

Many economists predicted there would be growth in the three-month period, which would end the UK recession.

The NIESR blamed the economy’s failure to register any growth on weak industrial production in August, especially reduced activity in the oil industry.

The forecast casts doubt on whether the UK economy will be following France, Germany and Japan out of recession.

Even if it does not, there is likely to have been be an improvement from the 0.6% contraction seen between April and June.

The South West Regional Economic Profile is published twice a year by the South West Observatory and the South West RDA.